Sport Climbing In Paris - An Olympic Primer

The Paris 2024 Olympic Games are about to begin and once again we have competition climbing gold on the line. Thankfully, the silly combined format of Tokyo is gone and Speed is now its own discipline. Speed climbing is apparently the Olympic's fastest event (by duration of contest) and seems like a bit of a novelty event, but at least New Zealand has athletes that qualified for Speed. Best of luck to Sarah Tetzlaff and Julian David.

The combined Boulder and Lead event is great watching for climbing enthusiasts—with some of the world's best sport climbers present at the competition—and an exciting format with parkour, swing-a-lings and no-tex volumes in the Boulder and vomit-inducing resistance and pressured 'no second-chance' problem solving in the Lead. Adjustments have also been made to the scoring system since Tokyo, with the introduction of two zones in the Boulder and a cumulative points system across the two disciplines that makes it easier to follow an athlete's score. It might even give a fairer outcome. For those who don't follow the World Cup circuit and aren't familiar with all the athletes, here's a breakdown of who's who and the likely medal contenders. We'll start with the women.

Women

Gold

Janja Garnbret.

That's it really. Is there a more dominant athlete at these Olympic Games? 

Garnbret (SLO) is right up there with Armand Duplantis (SWE) in the men's pole vault and Faith Kipyegon (KEN) in the women's 1500m as indomitable champions. I suppose Team USA's men's basketball team with LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durrant et al are a lock-in too, but team sports at the Olympics always seems weird to me. In any case, Janja is imperious. There's a chance she might slip up in Boulder in a 'must-flash' final with an easy set and be pipped by someone like Oriane Bertone (FRA), Natalia Grossman or Brooke Raboutou (both USA). Likewise, in the Lead event Ai Mori (JAP) might sneak a first ahead of Garnbret, but it's hard to see her finishing lower than second in both rounds and therefore still taking gold. Something would have to go very wrong for her not to win.

Some might say it is boring to have such a likely outcome in a sporting event, but they probably haven't seen Janja Garnbret climb. There's something incredible about seeing an athlete at the absolute pinnacle and head and shoulders above their elite peers perform to their potential, it is worth just sitting back and enjoying it for as long as it lasts. Much like Duplantis in the pole vault, Garnbret has a likeable charisma too so it is hard to find anyone who doesn't applaud her success.

Podium

Here's where it gets really interesting, as the battle for the other medals is bound to be tight. It'd be great to see Miho Nonaka (JAP) repeat her medal success from Tokyo, or home favourite Oriane Bertone win a medal, but realistically their Lead proficiency falls too far short of their Boulder excellence for the odds to be in their favour. Likewise, Ai Mori and or Chaeyhun Seo (KOR) are excellent Lead climbers, but are likely to be really punished in the Boulder round. Of course, an easy or hard Boulder set creates less or more separation, respectively, and dramatically changes the odds for athletes in the more specialist categories. So these athletes all have a chance.

But with a fairly-balanced set, the allrounders have the better chance. Jessica Pilz (AUT) is inconsistent at World Cup level, but had a good World Championships when qualification was at stake (second to Garnbret in Bern last year, which is the most recent open competition with the same format as the Olympics)and can perform to a high level in both disciplines. The two Americans, Brooke Raboutou and Natalia Grossman are both excellent in both disciplines. Raboutou was dominant at the recent Olympic Qualifier Series to earn her place at the Games, but will the Olympics be one competition too many after having been through that stressful and gruelling process? Grossman, on the other hand, qualified early and has been free to prepare exactly how she wants to. We haven't seen her at World Cup events this year since she won Boulder at Salt Lake City in May (Garnbret was not competing), so her form is a bit of an unknown. But assuming her preparation has been ideal—and her form is more like 2022 Natalia than 2023 Natalia—then a medal seems likely.

Men

Gold

It seems crazy, but if there is a men's favourite it is 17 year old Sorato Anraku of Japan, in just his second year of competing at the open level. Since debuting at this level at the start of the 2023 season, Anraku has competed in near every World Cup or World Championship competition and only once has finished outside of the top 10, and that was way back in his second competition in April 2023. Last year he was the first person to win the overall World Cups for the Boulder and Lead disciplines in the same year and yes, it was his first year competing at that level. Astonishing.

The only potential chink in his armour is that in the pressurised environment of the Bern World Championships—a one-off competition and with Olympic places on the line—he failed to win either the Boulder or Lead events and surprisingly finished 4th in the combined event, one place shy of Olympic qualification. On that day, he was undone by some slippery no-tex volumes and there have been circulating rumours since that 'Sticky' Sorato's kryptonite is the no-tex hold. He made up for this by qualifying at the next opportunity, the Jakarta Asian qualifier. Nevertheless, questions remain around how he will perform in the Olympic pressure cooker, though there are surely none around his potential ability to win if nerves are controlled.

Second on IFSC's combined format ranking list is 19 year old Toby Roberts (GBR). He has been around only slightly longer than Anraku, but has been very successful in both disciplines and has won individual Boulder and Lead World Cups in the last two years. He also performed slightly below his perceived potential in Bern, finishing one place behind Anraku in 5th. His gritty style is certainly more British than Anraku's Japanese flair, but that mentality might do him well at the Olympics.

At the other end of the age spectrum, there's 33 year old Austrian, Jakob Schubert. He had about as good an elite climbing performance year as you can have in 2023. He climbed outdoor routes and boulder problems at the very highest levels (9A boulder, 9c route) won two Lead World Cups as well as the Combined format and Lead World Championship titles. There's still a bit of a question mark over how many points he will score in Boulder, but if there's a slightly old-school set on the day, then he will be very hard to beat as he's world class.

Podium

There are a few other outliers and the first three are all fan favourites, but I think their chances at the gold medal are slightly lower and they are really competing for podium places if the three mentioned above have off days. 

Second place in the Bern combined format went to USA's Colin Duffy. Duffy is a mercurial talent who is capable of winning Boulder and Lead at the same event (he was the first to do so, in Innsbruck in 2022), but can also bomb out spectacularly—he finished 45th in  Boulder at the Bern World Champs and managed to sprain his ankle. He's always one to watch, as his spats with officious judges and ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory keep the drama high, as evidenced by him fighting back from the disastrous Boulder event to claim second in the Combined at the World Champs just days later. Nevertheless, I  remember one event where he touched the top hold of every Boulder in a final, but somehow scored no tops. Importantly for Colin, he won his last Lead World Cup just a few weeks ago in Chamonix, so seems to be in good form. If all goes well for him on the day, don't be surprised to see him on the podium as we did in Bern.

Third in Bern was Tomoa Narasaki (JAP). Narasaki is a stylish boulder specialist who bounces around the new school problems, but his Lead has really improved in recent years. He's also the only person at the Olympics who has a reduced chance at the Gold since Speed was separated from the Combined format, such is his all-around ability. He was arguably the favourite for gold in Tokyo because of this, but failed to perform at his home Olympics. Nevertheless, he's a multiple Boulder World Cup Overall title winner and if the Boulder set is new school, then he could score very highly and hold on for a medal in Lead. But arguably his advantage on new school boulders over the rest of the field is less than it was a few years ago.

And then there's Adam Ondra (CZE). He's hopelessly out of his depth on parkour boulder problems, but his record as a climber of difficult rocks is peerless. He seems to have been somewhat eclipsed by Jakob Schubert in recent years, but he lands in the same category of very strong in Lead and a favourable Boulder set without coordination dynos or swing-a-lings (drop knees and thumbderclings are more Ondra's vibe) could see the outdoor climbers of the world shake their fists in glee as one of their own gets one over the gym climbers.

Also worth keeping an eye on are Sam Avezou (FRA), Dohyun Lee (KOR) and Alberto Gines-Lopez (ESP). All three are young, but improving all the time. Avezou is a genuine allrounder and performing in front of his home crowd might be enough of a boost to get him up for a medal. Lee won the Olympic Qualifier Series and while arguably the best five men had already qualified and so weren't present, it gives him a similar potential as a proven performer in this style of comp as Brooke Raboutou in the women's field. Gines-Lopez famously won the gold in Tokyo, to the surprise of everyone—including himself—and not without a decent slice of luck as the triple format allowed for. I was vocal about saying he didn't deserve the gold in Tokyo, as he wasn't the best performing climber, while others made the point that he did what he needed to win and that's sport. His form after Tokyo was poor, buttressing my 'it was a fluke' theory and he was a lowly 29th in the Combined format in Bern last year. But this year I've had to eat my words, as he's shown sparkling form. He missed Olympic selection by one place at the European Qualifier (finishing second to Roberts when one place was available) and finished second and fifth at the two Olympic Qualifier events to comfortably earn his ticket. If there's an easy Boulder set with little separation then AGL's famous endurance could see him shine in Lead. Could he win gold again? Stranger things have happened.

The climbing events at the Paris Olympics kick off on the 5th August.

By Tom Hoyle